WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 05, 2026 · EVENING REPORT · YESTERDAY: August 04, 2026
PITCHER STRIKEOUT PROJECTIONS
| PITCHER |
P vs LINE |
P vs PROJ |
OPP vs LINE |
80% LINE |
Goose+3 | pK+ | PROJ Ks | F5 Ks |
| Reid Detmers @ BAL |
9-0 |
6-3 |
1-51 |
4 |
105.5 |
106.3 |
7.6* (8.0) |
7.0
|
| Paul Skenes @ MIL |
11-0 |
7-4 |
3-54 |
4 |
104.8 |
108.2 |
6.8 |
6.4
|
| Kyle Harrison vs PIT |
6-0 |
3-3 |
5-53 |
3 |
106.9 |
114.1 |
6.6 |
6.6
|
| Bryan Woo vs DET |
9-1 |
4-6 |
5-49 |
3 |
105.2 |
107.1 |
6.1 |
5.3
|
| Eury Pérez @ ATL |
7-2 |
6-3 |
5-49 |
3 |
104.5 |
107.3 |
6.1 |
5.7
|
| Trevor Rogers vs LAA |
10-1 |
6-5 |
5-51 |
3 |
104.4 |
103.9 |
6.1 |
5.7
|
| Sonny Gray vs CWS |
11-0 |
7-4 |
6-47 |
3 |
103.6 |
102.6 |
5.9 |
5.3
|
| Tanner Bibee vs NYM |
8-2 |
3-7 |
2-53 |
3 |
105.0 |
105.5 |
5.9 |
5.2
|
| Dean Kremer @ KC |
4-0 |
0-4 |
4-50 |
3 |
100.2 |
103.8 |
5.8* (6.2) |
5.6
|
| Sean Burke @ BOS |
9-0 |
8-1 |
6-49 |
3 |
105.8 |
105.9 |
5.8 |
5.4
|
| Andre Pallante @ NYY |
9-0 |
2-7 |
5-53 |
2 |
104.9 |
97.6 |
5.6 |
5.0
|
| Shota Imanaga vs LAD |
10-1 |
1-10 |
6-51 |
2 |
104.3 |
106.4 |
5.5 |
4.9
|
| Bryce Elder vs MIA |
9-1 |
3-7 |
5-50 |
2 |
103.6 |
99.0 |
5.3 |
4.7
|
| Noah Cameron vs MIN |
8-3 |
7-4 |
8-44 |
2 |
104.6 |
100.1 |
5.2 |
4.8
|
| Hunter Brown vs TOR |
7-0 |
1-6 |
4-52 |
2 |
102.3 |
102.3 |
5.1 |
4.9
|
| Carson Whisenhunt @ TEX |
4-0 |
1-3 |
8-48 |
2 |
100.0 |
104.1 |
4.9 |
4.9
|
| Jake Irvin @ PHI |
— |
— |
1-53 |
2 |
104.0 |
101.1 |
4.8 |
4.8
|
| Casey Mize @ AZ |
9-0 |
4-5 |
2-56 |
2 |
103.9 |
102.6 |
4.7 |
4.6
|
| Jameson Taillon @ HOU |
5-0 |
3-2 |
5-50 |
2 |
103.3 |
102.3 |
4.7 |
4.7
|
| Christian Scott @ CLE |
8-0 |
7-1 |
4-49 |
2 |
103.4 |
105.8 |
4.6 |
4.6
|
| Jacob Lopez @ CIN |
3-1 |
3-1 |
2-51 |
2 |
104.1 |
97.7 |
4.2 |
4.2
|
| Nick Martinez @ COL |
7-4 |
3-8 |
4-51 |
1 |
103.7 |
99.0 |
4.2 |
3.6
|
| Mitch Bratt vs SD |
3-1 |
1-3 |
8-50 |
1 |
99.8 |
94.9 |
4.1* (3.7) |
4.1
|
| Andrew Painter vs WSH |
3-0 |
2-1 |
6-50 |
1 |
101.7 |
98.8 |
4.0 |
4.0
|
| Eric Lauer @ CHC |
7-0 |
3-4 |
1-54 |
1 |
103.5 |
97.7 |
3.9 |
3.9
|
| Will Warren vs STL |
8-2 |
4-6 |
8-49 |
1 |
103.7 |
103.0 |
3.6 |
3.6
|
| Drew Anderson @ SEA |
— |
— |
10-43 |
1 |
105.8 |
105.5 |
3.3* (3.6) |
3.3
|
| Tomoyuki Sugano vs TB |
9-0 |
3-6 |
8-48 |
1 |
100.5 |
94.0 |
3.2 |
3.1
|
| Rhett Lowder vs ATH |
7-0 |
6-1 |
4-49 |
1 |
102.3 |
97.4 |
2.6 |
2.6
|
HIGH TOTAL BASE PROJECTIONS
| BATTER |
OPPONENT |
PROJ TB | HR% | J2+ | OPP pHR+ | EDGE |
| Zach Neto |
vs Trevor Rogers |
2.36 |
6.4% |
108.8 |
99.6 |
BAT+9 |
| Drake Baldwin |
vs Eury Pérez |
2.23 |
5.8% |
118.6 |
102.6 |
BAT+16 |
| Kyle Schwarber |
vs Jake Irvin |
2.23 |
5.2% |
126.6 |
115.0 |
BAT+12 |
| Jahmai Jones |
vs Sean Burke |
2.12 |
5.8% |
88.4 |
109.5 |
PIT-21 |
| Pete Alonso |
vs Reid Detmers |
2.11 |
5.2% |
118.5 |
102.6 |
BAT+16 |
| Kody Clemens |
vs Noah Cameron |
2.09 |
4.4% |
123.1 |
107.8 |
BAT+15 |
| Jake Burger |
vs Carson Whisenhunt |
2.06 |
4.8% |
113.8 |
95.1 |
BAT+19 |
| Brenton Doyle |
vs Sonny Gray |
2.05 |
4.8% |
80.9 |
104.3 |
PIT-23 |
| Travis Bazzana |
vs Christian Scott |
2.04 |
4.6% |
102.1 |
101.5 |
|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
vs Hunter Brown |
2.02 |
4.6% |
95.8 |
116.3 |
PIT-20 |
| Alec Bohm |
vs Jake Irvin |
2.01 |
3.4% |
98.2 |
115.0 |
PIT-17 |
| Ryan McMahon |
vs Andre Pallante |
2.01 |
4.4% |
102.7 |
111.3 |
PIT-9 |
GAME WIN PICKS
| MATCHUP |
AWAY STARTER |
HOME STARTER |
PROJ |
TOTAL |
PICK |
| STL @ NYY |
Andre Pallante |
Will Warren |
6.2−5.4 |
11.5 |
STL |
| ATH @ CIN |
Jacob Lopez |
Rhett Lowder |
6.3−4.8 |
11.2 |
ATH |
| MIN @ KC |
Dean Kremer |
Noah Cameron |
5.3−5.9 |
11.1 |
KC |
| TB @ COL |
Nick Martinez |
Tomoyuki Sugano |
5.2−5.8 |
11.0 |
COL |
| PIT @ MIL |
Paul Skenes |
Kyle Harrison |
5.4−5.5 |
10.9 |
MIL |
| LAA @ BAL |
Reid Detmers |
Trevor Rogers |
5.2−5.3 |
10.5 |
PUSH |
| LAD @ CHC |
Eric Lauer |
Shota Imanaga |
5.0−5.2 |
10.3 |
CHC |
| MIA @ ATL |
Eury Pérez |
Bryce Elder |
5.0−5.1 |
10.1 |
ATL |
| WSH @ PHI |
Jake Irvin |
Andrew Painter |
5.5−4.3 |
9.8 |
WSH |
| SD @ AZ |
Casey Mize |
Mitch Bratt |
5.0−4.6 |
9.6 |
SD |
| CWS @ BOS |
Sean Burke |
Sonny Gray |
4.8−4.8 |
9.5 |
PUSH |
| TOR @ HOU |
Jameson Taillon |
Hunter Brown |
4.2−5.3 |
9.5 |
HOU |
| DET @ SEA |
Drew Anderson |
Bryan Woo |
4.9−4.5 |
9.4 |
DET |
| NYM @ CLE |
Christian Scott |
Tanner Bibee |
4.4−4.9 |
9.3 |
CLE |
KEY MATCHUP MISMATCHES
Esmerlyn Valdez
vs
Kyle Harrison
BATTER EDGE
J2+:161.3 / G3+:106.9
(gap: 54.4)
Yordan Alvarez
vs
Jameson Taillon
BATTER EDGE
J2+:152.9 / G3+:103.3
(gap: 49.6)
Luis García Jr.
vs
Andre Pallante
BATTER EDGE
J2+:150.3 / G3+:104.9
(gap: 45.4)
Griffin Conine
vs
Bryce Elder
BATTER EDGE
J2+:148.0 / G3+:103.6
(gap: 44.4)
Ty France
vs
Mitch Bratt
BATTER EDGE
J2+:143.5 / G3+:99.8
(gap: 43.7)
Mickey Moniak
vs
Nick Martinez
BATTER EDGE
J2+:146.7 / G3+:103.7
(gap: 43.0)
Randal Grichuk
vs
Sonny Gray
BATTER EDGE
J2+:146.3 / G3+:103.6
(gap: 42.7)
Junior Caminero
vs
Tomoyuki Sugano
BATTER EDGE
J2+:138.5 / G3+:100.5
(gap: 38.0)
| SF |
4 |
@ |
TEX |
5 |
F |
| DET |
8 |
@ |
SEA |
0 |
F |
| WSH |
0 |
@ |
PHI |
5 |
F |
| STL |
0 |
@ |
NYY |
2 |
F |
| PIT |
2 |
@ |
MIL |
4 |
F |
| MIN |
2 |
@ |
KC |
8 |
F |
| TOR |
2 |
@ |
HOU |
7 |
F |
| TB |
9 |
@ |
COL |
7 |
F |
| NYM |
6 |
@ |
CLE |
2 |
F |
| ATH |
4 |
@ |
CIN |
5 |
F |
| LAD |
1 |
@ |
CHC |
5 |
F |
| CWS |
2 |
@ |
BOS |
14 |
F |
| LAA |
1 |
@ |
BAL |
3 |
F |
| MIA |
2 |
@ |
ATL |
4 |
F |
| SD |
9 |
@ |
AZ |
4 |
F |
PROJECTION ACCURACY — AUGUST 04, 2026
| PITCHER |
PROJ Ks | ACTUAL | DIFF |
| Jesús Luzardo vs WSH |
7.0 |
7 |
0.0 |
| Javier Assad vs LAD |
3.3 |
3 |
-0.3 |
| Ryan Weathers vs STL |
5.7 |
6 |
+0.3 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez vs SD |
4.4 |
4 |
-0.4 |
| Grant Holmes vs MIA |
5.4 |
5 |
-0.4 |
| Hayden Wesneski vs TOR |
4.4 |
4 |
-0.4 |
| Joey Cantillo vs NYM |
5.6 |
5 |
-0.6 |
| Tarik Skubal @ CHC |
6.9 |
6 |
-0.9 |
| J.T. Ginn @ CIN |
6.0 |
5 |
-1.0 |
| Patrick Sandoval vs CWS |
6.0 |
5 |
-1.0 |
| Grayson Rodriguez @ BAL |
4.7 |
6 |
+1.3 |
| Emerson Hancock vs DET |
4.6 |
6 |
+1.4 |
BATTER TB PROJECTIONS vs ACTUALS — AUGUST 04, 2026
| BATTER |
PROJ TB | ACT TB | DIFF | J2+ |
| Kyle Schwarber |
2.28 |
0 |
-2.3 |
126.6 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. |
2.26 |
4 |
+1.7 |
119.4 |
| Austin Riley |
2.22 |
5 |
+2.8 |
97.5 |
| Bo Bichette |
2.19 |
5 |
+2.8 |
101.1 |
| Yandy Díaz |
2.17 |
3 |
+0.8 |
119.2 |
| Corey Seager |
2.16 |
3 |
+0.8 |
98.7 |
| Pete Alonso |
2.13 |
1 |
-1.1 |
118.5 |
| Rafael Devers |
2.13 |
0 |
-2.1 |
120.9 |
| Miguel Vargas |
2.11 |
0 |
-2.1 |
118.7 |
| Carter Jensen |
2.08 |
0 |
-2.1 |
109.0 |
| Colson Montgomery |
2.05 |
1 |
-1.0 |
116.4 |
| Matt Olson |
2.00 |
3 |
+1.0 |
137.4 |
| Zach Neto |
1.99 |
1 |
-1.0 |
108.8 |
| Junior Caminero |
1.96 |
2 |
+0.0 |
138.5 |
| Manny Machado |
1.96 |
4 |
+2.0 |
108.9 |
HR PROJECTIONS (>5%) vs ACTUALS — AUGUST 04, 2026
| BATTER |
PROJ HR% | ACT HR | J2+ |
| Kyle Schwarber |
6.6% |
— |
126.6 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. |
6.4% |
— |
119.4 |
| Pete Alonso |
6.2% |
— |
118.5 |
| Austin Riley |
5.6% |
✓ 1 HR |
97.5 |
| Willson Contreras |
5.6% |
— |
131.6 |
| Rafael Devers |
5.6% |
— |
120.9 |
| Zach Neto |
5.4% |
— |
108.8 |
| Yandy Díaz |
5.4% |
— |
119.2 |
PITCHERS
(29 starters with projections)
| METRIC |
MAE | BIAS | WITHIN 1 | WITHIN 2 |
7-DAY MAE | SEASON MAE |
| K Count
(proj @21 BF) |
1.80 K |
over 0.66 |
34.5% |
65.5% |
1.74 K |
1.95 K |
| K Rate |
7.52% |
under 0.42 |
— |
— |
9.89% |
11.14% |
| ER
(OPS proxy) |
1.61 ER |
under 0.31 |
— |
— |
1.62 ER |
1.73 ER |
| IP
(actuals only) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
avg 5.55 inn · σ 1.13
|
BATTERS
(276 qualified)
| METRIC |
MAE | BIAS | WITHIN 1 |
7-DAY MAE | SEASON MAE |
| Total Bases |
1.36 TB |
over 0.24 |
37.0% |
1.40 TB |
1.39 TB |
| K Rate |
20.18% |
under 1.31 |
— |
20.52% |
20.68% |
| HR Rate
(Brier) |
0.09 |
proj 10.78% · act 0.10%
|
— |
0.10 |
0.11 |
GAMES
(15 completed games)
| METRIC |
MAE / ACC | BIAS |
7-DAY | SEASON |
| Total Runs
(both teams) |
3.91 R |
over 1.92 |
4.48 R |
4.08 R |
| Per-Team Runs |
2.73 R |
over 0.96 |
2.79 R |
2.73 R |
| Win Prediction |
46.2%
|
correct picks |
46.2%
|
51.7%
|
SAN DIEGO PADRES — SD 9 - AZ 4
PITCHING
| PITCHER |
IP |
H |
ER |
BB |
K |
P |
|
Randy Vásquez |
6.0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
80 |
|
Germán Márquez |
1.0 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
28 |
|
Griffin Canning |
1.0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
|
Bradgley Rodriguez |
1.0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
TODAY vs (SEASON AVG)
| TYPE |
N |
USE% |
VELO |
IVB |
HBRK |
WHIFF% |
STR |
BALL |
| FF |
22 |
28% (32%) |
95.4 (95.1) |
8.8 (9.5) |
-5.1 (-6.0) |
4.5% (20.8%) |
15 |
6 |
| SI |
20 |
25% (14%) |
95.3 (95.0) |
6.0 (6.6) |
-9.2 (-9.9) |
5.0% (11.0%) |
14 |
5 |
| FC |
19 |
24% (24%) |
92.1 (90.9) |
5.1 (5.4) |
0.9 (0.7) |
15.8% (18.4%) |
14 |
5 |
| CH |
6 |
8% (8%) |
89.7 (88.7) |
2.7 (3.1) |
-10.0 (-10.6) |
0.0% (16.9%) |
3 |
3 |
| SL |
6 |
8% (6%) |
85.9 (86.1) |
1.5 (2.8) |
4.0 (3.1) |
0.0% (26.6%) |
4 |
2 |
| ST |
5 |
6% (7%) |
86.0 (84.8) |
-0.1 (0.9) |
4.8 (5.2) |
0.0% (12.6%) |
4 |
1 |
| CU |
2 |
3% (10%) |
85.5 (84.0) |
-1.5 (-1.6) |
4.5 (5.1) |
0.0% (13.8%) |
0 |
2 |
Color vs league avg (RHP) —
green ≥10% above ·
red ≥10% below ·
season avg shown in (parens)
BATTING
| BATTER |
AB |
H |
TB |
RBI |
NOTES |
| Manny Machado |
5 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
12B, 1K |
| Jake Cronenworth |
5 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
| Jackson Merrill |
5 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
|
| Xander Bogaerts |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
12B, 1BB |
| Freddy Fermin |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
12B |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
4 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
12B, 1K |
| Luis Rengifo |
5 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
| Jase Bowen |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1K |
| Ty France |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2K |
| Gage Workman |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1K |
| Sung-Mun Song |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1BB |
SEATTLE MARINERS — SEA 0 - DET 8
PITCHING
| PITCHER |
IP |
H |
ER |
BB |
K |
P |
|
Emerson Hancock (L) |
6.0 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
94 |
|
Michael Rucker |
1.0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
12 |
|
Josh Simpson |
1.0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
13 |
|
Cole Wilcox |
0.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
|
Seranthony Domínguez |
0.1 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
26 |
TODAY vs (SEASON AVG)
| TYPE |
N |
USE% |
VELO |
IVB |
HBRK |
WHIFF% |
STR |
BALL |
| FF |
39 |
41% (39%) |
95.1 (95.5) |
4.7 (5.1) |
-7.8 (-7.7) |
17.9% (23.6%) |
29 |
7 |
| SI |
19 |
20% (23%) |
94.3 (94.7) |
0.0 (0.3) |
-11.1 (-11.2) |
0.0% (12.2%) |
13 |
5 |
| FC |
17 |
18% (12%) |
87.0 (85.7) |
2.7 (2.2) |
0.3 (1.3) |
17.6% (29.8%) |
11 |
6 |
| CH |
8 |
9% (5%) |
86.5 (87.1) |
-0.9 (-0.3) |
-9.0 (-9.6) |
25.0% (15.3%) |
6 |
0 |
| CU |
7 |
7% (4%) |
76.4 (76.1) |
-3.3 (-4.0) |
6.6 (6.7) |
0.0% (21.9%) |
3 |
2 |
| ST |
4 |
4% (17%) |
77.1 (77.1) |
1.5 (1.3) |
7.9 (8.3) |
25.0% (32.5%) |
1 |
3 |
Color vs league avg (RHP) —
green ≥10% above ·
red ≥10% below ·
season avg shown in (parens)
BATTING
| BATTER |
AB |
H |
TB |
RBI |
NOTES |
| Cal Raleigh |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2K |
| Randy Arozarena |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
| Julio Rodríguez |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1BB |
| Dominic Canzone |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1K |
| Taylor Ward |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1K |
| Josh Naylor |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1BB, 1K |
| Brendan Donovan |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1K |
| Cole Young |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2BB |
| Colt Emerson |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2K |
CINCINNATI REDS — CIN 5 - ATH 4
PITCHING
| PITCHER |
IP |
H |
ER |
BB |
K |
P |
|
Brady Singer |
6.0 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
101 |
|
Sam Moll |
1.0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
|
Emilio Pagán |
1.0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
14 |
|
Julian Garcia |
1.0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
14 |
TODAY vs (SEASON AVG)
| TYPE |
N |
USE% |
VELO |
IVB |
HBRK |
WHIFF% |
STR |
BALL |
| SI |
52 |
51% (48%) |
91.2 (91.3) |
5.8 (5.1) |
-9.6 (-9.3) |
11.5% (16.1%) |
30 |
19 |
| SL |
32 |
32% (30%) |
82.6 (82.5) |
-0.5 (-0.7) |
2.4 (2.3) |
9.4% (33.0%) |
17 |
10 |
| ST |
11 |
11% (13%) |
82.6 (81.7) |
2.9 (2.4) |
3.5 (4.1) |
36.4% (40.1%) |
5 |
5 |
| FC |
5 |
5% (7%) |
87.4 (87.2) |
4.0 (4.3) |
-0.5 (0.2) |
0.0% (16.1%) |
2 |
3 |
| FF |
1 |
1% (3%) |
92.1 (90.7) |
8.1 (7.5) |
-5.2 (-4.3) |
0.0% (7.0%) |
0 |
1 |
Color vs league avg (RHP) —
green ≥10% above ·
red ≥10% below ·
season avg shown in (parens)
BATTING
| BATTER |
AB |
H |
TB |
RBI |
NOTES |
| Matt McLain |
3 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
12B |
| Eugenio Suárez |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1BB, 1K |
| JJ Bleday |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1BB, 2K |
| Elly De La Cruz |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1BB, 1K |
| Sal Stewart |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1BB |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1K |
| Tyler Stephenson |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Dane Myers |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2K |
| None |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| None |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Héctor Rodríguez |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1BB |
● DATA INTEGRITY: WARNING
· 2026-08-05
· 357 games checked,
0 missing/incomplete
(0 fixed),
5 PA mismatches
5 PA count mismatches