MIACORP SPORTS BRIEF
ANALYTICS · PROJECTIONS · MARKET INTELLIGENCE
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MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2026  ·  AFTERNOON REPORT  ·  YESTERDAY: September 20, 2026
Today's Outlook — MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2026
PITCHER STRIKEOUT PROJECTIONS
Trey Yesavage
TOR @ BAL · away · RHP · 3:35 PM
0.01.73.75.611.1
Proj
3.7
±SD
2.9
Shane Baz
BAL vs TOR · home · RHP · 3:35 PM
0.72.43.03.65.3
Proj
3.0
±SD
0.9
DJ Herz
WSH @ DET · away · LHP · 3:40 PM
0.00.0———
Proj
—
±SD
1.7
River Ryan
DET vs WSH · home · RHP · 3:40 PM
0.00.0———
Proj
—
±SD
1.5
Blade Tidwell
SF vs MIN · home · RHP · 6:45 PM
0.33.34.35.48.4
Proj
4.3
±SD
1.6
Zebby Matthews
MIN @ SF · away · RHP · 6:45 PM
1.13.54.35.27.5
Proj
4.3
±SD
1.2
Box = IQR (25th–75th percentile) · Whiskers = 1st–99th percentile · Center line = projected median · Red line = actual observed Ks · Projection blends pitcher's last 3 starts (same home/away side) with opponent's last 3 games vs same-handedness starters · 60-day lookback
HIGH TOTAL BASE PROJECTIONS
BATTER OPPONENT PROJ TBHR%J2+OPP pHR+EDGE
Bryce Eldridge vs Zebby Matthews 2.20 5.2% 120.8 98.4 BAT+22
Pete Alonso vs Trey Yesavage 2.09 4.8% 127.1 108.0 BAT+19
Victor Caratini vs Blade Tidwell 2.03 4.8% None 121.2 PIT-21
Austin Martin vs Blade Tidwell 1.98 4.8% 79.4 121.2 PIT-42
Jeremiah Jackson vs Trey Yesavage 1.97 5.0% 101.8 108.0
Josh Bell vs Blade Tidwell 1.91 4.0% None 121.2 PIT-21
Christian Encarnacion-Strand vs Trey Yesavage 1.91 5.0% 139.0 108.0 BAT+31
Shay Whitcomb vs Zebby Matthews 1.88 4.8% 93.5 98.4
Kody Clemens vs Blade Tidwell 1.83 3.4% 119.5 121.2
Ben Ross vs Blade Tidwell 1.82 3.8% None 121.2 PIT-21
Alex Jackson vs Blade Tidwell 1.81 3.4% 108.3 121.2 PIT-13
Davis Schneider vs Shane Baz 1.79 3.4% 78.2 115.6 PIT-37
GAME WIN PICKS
MATCHUP AWAY STARTER HOME STARTER PROJ TOTAL PICK
TOR @ BAL Trey Yesavage Shane Baz 4.1−5.0 9.1 BAL
MIN @ SF Zebby Matthews Blade Tidwell 4.4−4.5 8.9 PUSH
Game runs: starter proj_ops × 9.0 − 0.88 · Bullpen not modeled · Push = <0.1 run diff
KEY MATCHUP MISMATCHES
Christian Encarnacion-Strand vs Trey Yesavage
BATTER EDGE J2+:139.0 / G3+:105.3 (gap: 33.7)
Victor Bericoto vs Zebby Matthews
BATTER EDGE J2+:133.8 / G3+:100.6 (gap: 33.2)
Coby Mayo vs Trey Yesavage
BATTER EDGE J2+:132.7 / G3+:105.3 (gap: 27.4)
Pete Alonso vs Trey Yesavage
BATTER EDGE J2+:127.1 / G3+:105.3 (gap: 21.8)
Bryce Eldridge vs Zebby Matthews
BATTER EDGE J2+:120.8 / G3+:100.6 (gap: 20.2)
Kody Clemens vs Blade Tidwell
BATTER EDGE J2+:119.5 / G3+:101.8 (gap: 17.7)
Ryan Jeffers vs Blade Tidwell
BATTER EDGE J2+:118.1 / G3+:101.8 (gap: 16.3)
Kazuma Okamoto vs Shane Baz
BATTER EDGE J2+:120.6 / G3+:105.0 (gap: 15.6)
Yesterday's Final Scores
TOR 7 @ TEX 2 F
BOS 1 @ TB 5 F
WSH 3 @ STL 5 F
MIA 3 @ SD 7 F
KC 3 @ PIT 4 F
PHI 7 @ NYM 2 F
SF 1 @ LAD 3 F
MIN 8 @ LAA 0 F
ATL 4 @ HOU 2 F
SEA 2 @ COL 1 F
ATH 0 @ CLE 1 F
CHC 9 @ CIN 1 F
DET 1 @ CWS 8 F
MIL 3 @ BAL 0 F
NYY 4 @ AZ 8 F
Model Accuracy — September 20, 2026
PITCHERS (? starters with projections)
METRIC MAEBIASWITHIN 1WITHIN 2 7-DAY MAESEASON MAE
K Count (proj @21 BF) — — —% —% — —
K Rate — — — — — —
ER (OPS proxy) — — — — — —
IP (actuals only) — — — — avg — inn · σ —
BATTERS (? qualified)
METRIC MAEBIASWITHIN 1 7-DAY MAESEASON MAE
Total Bases — — —% — —
K Rate — — — — —
HR Rate (Brier) — proj — · act — — — —
GAMES (15 completed games)
METRIC MAE / ACCBIAS 7-DAYSEASON
Total Runs (both teams) 3.38 R over 3.08 3.13 R 3.94 R
Per-Team Runs 2.75 R over 1.54 2.45 R 2.67 R
Win Prediction 66.7% correct picks 53.7% 52.9%
K Count: proj = K% × 21 PA (6-inn baseline) · ER: OPS-against × 4.5 × IP/9 proxy · Game runs: proj_ops × 9.0 − 0.88 (starter OPS → runs, bullpen not modeled) · Bias +/− = over/under projection · Brier score: lower = better HR probability calibration
Focus Team Box Scores — September 20, 2026
SAN DIEGO PADRES — SD 7 - MIA 3
PITCHING
PITCHER IP H ER BB K P
Walker Buehler 6.2 3 3 2 6 89
Mason Miller 1.0 0 0 0 0 7
Bradgley Rodriguez 1.0 1 0 0 0 7
Kyle Hart 0.1 0 0 1 0 10
PITCH MIX — WALKER BUEHLER VIEW PROFILE →
TODAY vs (SEASON AVG)
TYPE N USE% VELO IVB HBRK WHIFF% STR BALL
FF 24 27% (21%) 93.5 (94.0) 8.7 (9.1) -3.6 (-3.1) 8.3% (13.6%) 17 7
FC 21 24% (27%) 89.9 (90.4) 6.2 (5.7) 1.7 (2.4) 4.8% (17.3%) 11 8
SI 17 19% (21%) 93.8 (94.1) 6.6 (7.3) -8.7 (-8.3) 0.0% (8.3%) 14 3
SL 14 16% (11%) 86.7 (87.0) 1.8 (1.6) 4.2 (4.2) 7.1% (23.7%) 11 3
KC 8 9% (9%) 77.7 (78.7) -7.2 (-7.6) 5.4 (5.5) 25.0% (24.7%) 4 2
CH 5 6% (10%) 88.0 (89.2) 4.0 (2.2) -8.2 (-7.4) 0.0% (30.6%) 3 2
Color vs league avg (RHP) — green ≥10% above · red ≥10% below · season avg shown in (parens)
BATTING
BATTER AB H TB RBI NOTES
Jake Cronenworth 4 3 10 5 12B, 2HR, 1K
Samad Taylor 3 3 4 1 12B
Fernando Tatis Jr. 4 1 4 1 1HR
Xander Bogaerts 3 1 1 0 1BB
Dustin Harris 4 1 1 0
Jackson Merrill 4 1 1 0 1K
Manny Machado 4 0 0 0 2K
Ty France 4 0 0 0 1K
None 0 0 0 0
Ethan Salas 2 0 0 0 1BB, 1K
Sung-Mun Song 1 0 0 0
SEATTLE MARINERS — SEA 2 - COL 1
PITCHING
PITCHER IP H ER BB K P
Kade Anderson 7.0 3 0 0 7 84
Seranthony Domínguez 1.0 1 0 0 1 12
Eduard Bazardo 0.2 0 0 1 2 12
Andrés Muñoz 0.1 1 1 1 0 11
PITCH MIX — KADE ANDERSON VIEW PROFILE →
TODAY vs (SEASON AVG)
TYPE N USE% VELO IVB HBRK WHIFF% STR BALL
FF 37 44% (42%) 92.7 (93.4) 7.5 (9.2) 4.9 (4.5) 13.5% (18.2%) 28 7
CH 16 19% (18%) 83.4 (84.5) 3.5 (4.9) 6.2 (7.2) 25.0% (30.1%) 10 5
CU 16 19% (16%) 81.5 (81.8) -5.3 (-5.4) -2.0 (-4.0) 18.8% (27.2%) 13 3
SL 15 18% (24%) 87.8 (87.8) 0.1 (-0.1) -1.2 (-1.9) 13.3% (25.6%) 7 7
Color vs league avg (LHP) — green ≥10% above · red ≥10% below · season avg shown in (parens)
BATTING
BATTER AB H TB RBI NOTES
Dominic Canzone 4 2 3 2 12B, 1K
J.P. Crawford 4 1 1 0 1K
Julio Rodríguez 3 1 1 0
None 0 0 0 0
Josh Naylor 4 0 0 0
Cal Raleigh 3 0 0 0 1BB, 1K
Randy Arozarena 3 0 0 0 1BB, 1K
Cole Young 3 0 0 0
Lazaro Montes 2 0 0 0 1BB, 2K
Michael Arroyo 1 0 0 0
Brock Rodden 2 0 0 0
CINCINNATI REDS — CIN 1 - CHC 9
PITCHING
PITCHER IP H ER BB K P
Rhett Lowder (L) 3.0 6 5 3 3 60
Carson Spiers 4.0 5 4 0 5 62
Graham Ashcraft 1.0 1 0 0 1 17
Luis Mey 1.0 1 0 1 1 20
PITCH MIX — RHETT LOWDER VIEW PROFILE →
TODAY vs (SEASON AVG)
TYPE N USE% VELO IVB HBRK WHIFF% STR BALL
SI 21 35% (29%) 94.3 (93.1) 4.1 (4.0) -9.7 (-10.5) 0.0% (5.4%) 14 7
SL 13 22% (27%) 86.4 (85.1) -0.3 (-0.4) 0.3 (0.5) 30.8% (31.7%) 5 4
CH 12 20% (20%) 87.9 (86.6) 1.2 (0.5) -10.2 (-10.7) 16.7% (24.6%) 4 3
FF 9 15% (21%) 94.7 (93.7) 7.8 (7.6) -5.1 (-6.6) 0.0% (15.9%) 3 5
CU 5 8% (3%) 82.1 (80.7) -7.2 (-7.1) 6.0 (6.0) 20.0% (5.6%) 3 2
Color vs league avg (RHP) — green ≥10% above · red ≥10% below · season avg shown in (parens)
BATTING
BATTER AB H TB RBI NOTES
JJ Bleday 3 1 4 1 1HR, 1BB
Will Banfield 3 1 1 0 1K
Matt McLain 3 1 1 0
Elly De La Cruz 4 1 1 0 1K
Ke'Bryan Hayes 2 0 0 0
Tyler Stephenson 4 0 0 0 2K
Oswaldo Cabrera 3 0 0 0 2K
Dane Myers 3 0 0 0 1K
None 0 0 0 0
Carlos Jorge 1 0 0 0
Héctor Rodríguez 1 0 0 0
Sal Stewart 4 0 0 0 1K
● DATA INTEGRITY: WARNING   ·   2026-09-21   ·   405 games checked, 0 missing/incomplete (0 fixed), 10 PA mismatches
10 PA count mismatches
Generated 2026-09-21 12:02 ET · MiaCorp Analytics · Models: pK+ (K rate r=+0.560), pHR+ (HR rate r=−0.357), Juiced+2 (SLG r=+0.558)